Category Archives: Misc

Would newspapers benefit from collusion over paywalls?

I’ve had almost no time to post here in the past few weeks, as I just began studying for the bar, but I wanted to take a break from studying Evidence and Torts for a second. I have owed my friend Brad Greenberg, a fellow UCLA law new-grad, some attention. Brad’s most recent contribution to the world of legal academia is available here, and it covers a topic that should be interesting to law nerds and normal nerds alike – the survival (or, alternately, impending doom) of the newspaper industry. And the discussion is currently as alive as ever, with recent discussion of the topic focusing on the New Orleans Times-Picayune laying off staff despite it’s profitability.

Brad’s paper can be broken down into a few key arguments:

– Newspapers need to make more money than they are making now to survive,

– Collusion to set paywall prices could save them, but antitrust law bans such action,

– Congress should endorse and promote an exception to the antitrust laws to save the newspaper and the United States itself (I added that last part…).

Typical for a guy with multiple published pieces who also blogs on the side, Brad’s piece is refreshingly easy to read for a law article – but that doesn’t mean I agree with his points. Actually, I disagree with just about every one of them. Originally I thought of reasons why each point was wrong – newspapers can make money without paywalls, newspapers could probably escape antitrust charges through signaling their concerted action anyway, points about how the last government-endorsed entertainment/news monopoly (cable) has set us back by a decade. But really, none of those things matter, because ultimately the newspaper is dead and our children simply won’t care because the world will be just fine without them:

Welcome to the 21st Century, now with 100% less Newspaper – 

Newspapers were lazy, crappy, overachieving businesses for decades. These weren’t glamorous jobs, necessarily, but they weren’t well-run businesses either. Major newspapers lived off of two major cash cows – the natural monopolies of the classifieds and print ads. The network effect of having everybody in town looking at the same few pages of paper everyday let newspapers turn 10 cents of ink into a $1,000 ad or a $100 classified. If you needed to fill a job opening in the pre-internet era, you went to the newspaper, and you paid whatever it cost. Couch to sell? Car to sell? Plumbing services to offer for consumption? Same deal. Call the newspaper. The rest of the business wasn’t particularly fine-tuned, because it didn’t need to be.

A decade of Facebook, Google Adsense, and Craigslist later, and suddenly those ad monopolies are gone. Newspapers now offer an unattractive product (ie we pick the news that’s important, deliver it to you in a physical format once a day, and you pay for it) compared to what the internet offers (ie you pick the news you want, whenever you want it, and you don’t pay for it). It’s a lot like what’s happening right now with cable: people are realizing they shouldn’t have to pay for the 200 channels full of shows they don’t watch when all they want is Mad Men and Game of Thrones, and they can watch those on-demand online (if not completely legally at this point).  The fundamental problem facing newspapers is the same one facing cable, but the newspapers don’t have any unique content. The papers that do have unique content (for example, the Wall Street Journal) are having less trouble staying profitable, because they have something they can charge for and make a margin on. The ones that don’t are struggling to drive readers to their website, because in all likelihood those readers are already getting that same news from the few sites that have successfully transitioned online already. Content with value will always find a way to get out – but most papers just don’t have much content of value, and that’s a business problem, not a societal one.

But Brad would tell me that I’m focusing too much on the business and not enough on the societal benefits of the newspapers; ‘why don’t you lament the loss of our bold muckrakers, Dan?’ he might contest. For the most part, I just don’t think there is any risk that the sort of injustice newspapers cover will go uncovered in a digital world. As newspapers die and websites take their place, journalists will make careers (though likely fewer) of breaking and covering the same stories as they did when those stories were cast in ink. Will that make it easier to “corrupt” the news with bribes? To corner the market on an area of journalism and subvert it? Who could say at this point, but the bottom line is, newspapers are on the way out and personally curated digital news has already taken over. I’m almost certain we wouldn’t have missed Watergate if we had only had Twitter to rely on, but only time will tell.

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Spotify Frankenreview: Nine Months Later

I listen to a lot of music, and I love the internet, so one year ago I was avidly following the race to capture the internet music space. Obviously this race isn’t quite over, but it’s been about 10 months since I handicapped the race (and some here, too) and about 9 months since I wrote what turned out to be one of the most popular posts on my blog, a rather harsh review of Spotify that garnered a couple hundred page views by itself (even the picture of Spotify’s interface that I included got a few hundred views alone, so there was clearly some interest).

In my original handicapping of the internet music scene, I gave a big nod to iCloud and Turntable.fm. iCloud seemed like it would have an immediate headstart based on the cross-promotion possibilities with iTunes and iPhone, and Turntable.fm saw explosive early growth and looked like a winner based on it’s ability to sell virtual goods. Plus, Spotify hadn’t officially launched in the US yet. What’s happened since? Spotify has grown after launch, but not incredibly (just 3 million subscribers, only 20% of whom pay for the service). Turntable has gone legit with licensing by the major labels, and they’ve raised a bajillion dollars. And most people still don’t know what iCloud is.

That gets us to my original review of Spotify. The highlights: On the day I signed up, Spotify was doing pretty poorly and users couldn’t play a large number of popular songs. And the discovery-through-facebook method wasn’t particularly thrilling because nobody was on the service yet. I’m happy to report that 9 months later I’m still using the service, and it has now gotten more money out of me than any single internet service in the past couple years outside of the Apple app store. The viral/social component is great as Facebook jumped on board with Spotify integration whole-hog, and now my news feed constantly shows me songs my friends are listening to. One click there and Spotify launches, and I’m listening to whatever it is my friend listened to. Popular playlists are also a cool feature, and one I actually use. The radio feature and app store are cool too, though I use those less. I gave Spotify a 72/100 in my review based on the nonworking aspects, and modified that to an 80/100 after they fixed the non-playing songs issue. Now that the social features actually work, I’d revise that up even further to a 85/100.

But is Spotify going to solve all of the world’s music problems, and take over the world? If the numbers are any indicator, then my original review nailed the problem:

It’s not better than downloading the whole album for free as a torrent. People who pay for music pay for music, and maybe for them this service makes sense. But people who don’t pay for music get nothing from Spotify that they aren’t getting for free at a torrent site – on both I need to know what I want, and search for it. As a torrent, I can have the whole thing in 3-5 minutes, on Spotify, I have to pay, they may not have it, and it may not stream if they do. The only chance the music industry has to recapture the people who don’t want to pay for music is to either ramp up enforcement (which they’ve tried, and doesn’t and will never work), or to offer them a value proposition that they can’t turn down – Like utilizing the social graph in a new and cool way (turntable.fm) or offering an interesting method of discovering new music (pandora). Spotify doesn’t do either of those things well. It’s just a legal version of Napster, which is cool, but Napster was cutting edge in 1999, and didn’t have the possibility of drawing on advanced algorithms or facebook friends to suggest new music. Spotify should utilize those things, but it doesn’t.

Spotify is absolutely loaded at this point with every feature you can eke out of a service that knows your friends and your tastes – it’s got radio, it’s got an open development app store, it’s got recommendations. It’s doing everything I said it would have to do to have a chance at revolutionizing the industry. But it still is only converting about 20% of it’s (rather puny) 3 million user base to paying customers. In the end, if utilizing the social graph to provide the experience Spotify is now providing can’t convince more than 600k people to pay, there probably isn’t much that will. In my original breakdown of the competitors in this space I noted that even Pandora, hailed as a blueprint for the new internet/music fusion, hadn’t turned a profit. Spotify is likely in the same position, and the music industry still hasn’t found the route to getting another company to make it’s product wildly profitable again.

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Site reveals every public torrent any IP address has downloaded

I’m no html genius so this banner is probably going to get cut off, but the story behind it is that it (hopefully) shows the publicly listed torrents that were downloaded from your IP address. It’s from this site, which is making the rounds on tech and privacy blogs this week. It’s only got one torrent for my IP address, one which I’m relatively certain my roommate or a prior resident downloaded, but I’ve heard anecdotally that for many people/IP addresses it has an entire and possibly embarrassing list of files. Rather shocking how much is publicly available, and TorrentFreak has already turned the microscope towards the big media companies to see what files IP addresses associated with those companies reveal. Just a reminder that precious little of your internet existence is truly private.

 

Update: Though no html genius, the banner is down not for lack of smarts on my part but because the host site has been taken down. It is claimed to be temporary, so I’m going to leave this post as-is in the hopes that the very interesting webtool is revised and published again.

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State of the Android market; is the patent fight going to encourage the move to Facebook as an operating system?

A bunch of things have happened recently that seem to be pointing to an inevitable conclusion in mobile devices – Android is going to die, and if HTML5 comes around soon enough and with enough developer support, the mobile operating system as we know it might die as well.

The most recent cluster of news in the space consists of Samsung agreeing to a patent licensing deal with Microsoft over Samsung’s Android devices, Samsung joining forces with Microsoft and Intel to work on a new mobile operating system based on Linux, Google buying Motorola to bolster it’s ability to mount a defense of Android (which should have the unpleasant effect of scaring away the other OEMs who push out Android phones), and Amazon launching an Android-based Kindle Fire which aims to be an ipad killer. Oh, and Spotify’s partnership with Facebook is coming to fruition, proving to be a rather genius way to ween people off of itunes (i’ve barely opened itunes since starting with spotify, and once I can open spotify through Facebook on my phone, I may never touch itunes again).

How does all this information fit together?

Amazon is going to get hit with a patent infringement suit from Apple really fast. Then Android is going to die.

Apple has been aggressive, to say the least, in attacking the Android ecosystem with patent suits. Microsoft has done the same. The combined effect? Companies will be wary of putting money behind a system that may get them sued into oblivion. If Amazon somehow evades the ire of the anti-Android coalition, maybe Android is saved as a potential OS to compete with Apple’s iOS. But given Apple’s aggressive attacks on Samsung in Europe over tablet competitors and their attacks on the Android ecosystem in general, I wouldn’t hold out hope that Amazon is going to get away with launching a major Android tablet without Apple taking action. Maybe there is hope beyond the Kindle Fire, but I’d also wager that if it fails, it’s going to be the last major Android tablet to come out. Android tablets have done absolutely horribly this year, to the point where retailers are having to discount them to almost half-price just to move them. Given the lukewarm reception and patent woes, it’s a bad investment for companies to keep cranking out Android tablets. If companies continue to be exposed to massive patent suits for using Android, it’s only a matter of time before the entire OS collapses.

Facebook is in a better position than ever to become the mobile company they plan to be.

Facebook has been vocal recently about wanting to be a mobile company, and if their Spotify partnership is any indication of where the company is going, I think it’s only a matter of time before they become the default starting location for all things on mobile phones. I was lukewarm on Spotify when it launched – my review of my initial experience concluded with a passing grade of “B” for the service, but that was on the first day it was available in the US. I said I wouldn’t still be paying for the service after a month, but 2 payments later and I’m still using it. I can’t stress how important Spotify’s partnership with Facebook is in my mind – this partnership puts Facebook in position to attack the core of iOS – iTunes. As I mentioned, iTunes is going to die in the face of this partnership – Spotify + Facebook nails the social element of sharing music unlike any prior service, and it just simply offers more than iTunes at this point. So Facebook has an iTunes killer now (only a matter of time before Spotify runs inside Facebook), they’ve got big dedicated app developers (Zynga, EA, Kabam, etc.), they’ve already had messaging and chat, we know they are working on an app market based in HTML5, and the newsfeed is an excellent homepage if you snap a basic web browser on the top. Plus users are comfortable navigating Facebook, so the transition to Facebook-as-operating-system would be seamless for most. Only a matter of time in my mind, and if Facebook approaches device-makers who are frustrated with Android and looking for an alternative, Facebook could make major in-roads into mobile almost overnight.

Google+ can’t transition to mobile like Facebook.

Why can’t Google do the same thing with Google+ that Facebook is going to do with… Facebook? They could, but they don’t have nearly what Facebook has in terms of critical user mass, nor do they have the partnerships in place to transition app developers to Google+. Developers don’t work directly with Google on Android apps like Facebook developers do with Facebook, and if Android dies anyway, the transition from Android to a different Google+ system would likely be more rocky than for Facebook to move developers from web to mobile (especially if web IS the mobile OS… it’s like the twilight zone). Also, Google is tied to Android now with it’s Motorola acquisition, making a transition away from the OS unlikely.

So I’m liking Facebook right now, I think Google is in a tough spot with Android because of the patent issues (forced to buy a company to acquire patents to defend an ecosystem that other device-makers don’t want to be a part of if Google owns a competitor), and Amazon has to really really hope that Apple doesn’t notice that they just launched an Android tablet.

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The real reason Google+ may fail, it lacks a core use that is different from Facebook

Google+’s main challenge, as I see it, is to develop a core use that draws users away from Facebook in a new way. Let me explain by highlighting the core uses of the other major social networks of our time / Myspace was really the first social network that worked, and it did so on the strength of one principle – a custom space on the internet that is yours to do with what you please. It was a great idea, and at the time, completely groundbreaking in that it was too far head of its time in many ways. It started out before internet companies needed a revenue model to get anywhere, and in many ways that made Myspace a really charming experience. The core principle worked for its uniqueness, but primarily surged based on usage by a teenage customer base that was increasingly using the internet as a way to entertain themselves in the boredom of middle and high school. I was a teenager when Myspace was popular, and every teenager I knew had a Myspace, while my Dad wondered what on earth the internet was. Brands that sought the attention and money of teenager flocked to Myspace, and the network seemed like a hit. Except that eventually the principle wore thin for that teenage set when they grew up a little and realized they didn’t want shiny stars shooting behind 4 simultaneously playing youtube videos of a crappy pop band above two years of sappy blog posts about gym class to represent themselves to the world. Plus, it was really hard to look at some of those pages, providing a big disincentive for users to explore the service more than just their immediate friends.

     (Believe it or not, this isn’t just a bad myspace layout – it’s a layout somebody put together and recommended to others)

Facebook’s one principle was to be the antithesis of Myspace in certain ways (no shooting stars, no music, a fixed color scheme and one choice for layout). But the core principle that made Facebook work initially was as a psuedo scrapbook of all the things your friends were doing, with tagging all over so you could just sit and get completely distracted clicking on the profiles and pictures of people you hadn’t seen for years for seemingly no reason. People refer to it as Facebook stalking, and while I suppose that’s accurate, it paints a pretty voyeuristic picture of a completely voluntary decision to make certain things in life public by putting them on Facebook in the first place. It’s not even a really destructive thing, and it tends to make the service money! The more you partake in life on Facebook – inputting interests, perusing and clicking on things your friends like and liking them, the more Facebook can target you with ads that are more likely to convert, and the more Facebook makes from transactions using Credits. Facebook was wise to position itself in other ways to survive when their generation of users (Facebook rose on the backs of college students) again realized that they were in need of an image shift and that they didn’t want pictures of keg stands and posts about how drunk they were last night to show up as the online representation of themselves – Facebook persisted by allowing users to lock up their privacy and delete pictures and walls, while at the same time becoming indispensable (for now) as a picture warehouse, game platform, phone and address book and messaging service.

Twitter works on an entirely different principle – it’s a way to connect with anybody in the world, and access everything they choose to say on the service, with no privacy walls whatsoever. It’s part news aggregator, part friend activity monitor, part brand outreach, part celebrity follower, part location sharer, part revolution starter – Part of what has made Twitter so hard to monetize is that despite being popular, it appeals to people for different reasons. It’s really the only technology of its kind, and it works on many levels, making it a powerful social network (if not a very profitable one). Whereas Facebook is a very individual experience in many ways (much of the use is directed completely by the user and you navigate to the person you want), Twitter is an avalanche of information about where people are, what they are doing, what’s going on in the world. You are agreeing to submit yourself to viewing the 160 character thoughts of a random assortment of people anytime you access the service, and “following” somebody is not nearly the commitment that “friending” somebody is.

(A really ugly picture representing three successful social networks and, at the same time, looking like it was made before the founders of those networks had graduated college)

LinkedIn doesn’t deserve extensive treatment, but it is relevant here because Google+ is really Facebook+, and LinkedIn is really Facebook+Job Stuff. Whereas Facebook represents you as a person, LinkedIn’s core principle is that it represents you as a professional – a great, profitable twist, because Job Stuff is pretty important to people, and people who take Job Stuff seriously tend to be willing to spend money on Job Stuff, meaning advertising works well on Facebook+Job Stu… ahem, I mean LinkedIn. Where Facebook’s emphasis on on the Social in social networking, LinkedIn’s is on the Networking – perhaps a glib way to put it, but accurate I think. LinkedIn wasn’t particularly creative as it comes to pushing technology forward – sort of just a “well that’s obviously a good idea”, but also a “boy this is set up just like Facebook isn’t it”.

                                                                                 (My favorite comic on Google Plus, though I disagree with the last pane [see below])

Google+ is basically Facebook+Different Social Management. That’s it at this point. It’s not even a new take on how you interact – it borrows heavily from Facebook in lots of respects, be it the News Feed/Profile setup, the “Friending” mechanism of adding somebody to a circle, and the desire to be your picture warehouse and phonebook and address book. It’s missing a core principle that is different from Facebook- Myspace had being a unique online sanctuary to yourself, Facebook had stalking everybody you knew in a digestible format, Twitter had a firehose of unapologetic information from everybody you’ve ever been interested in hearing from, LinkedIn had Job Stuff. But what does Google Plus have? It’s more like Facebook Minus, Facebook, minus all my friends, photos, events, etc. It isn’t even as easy as typing in the names of all your friends to recreate the Facebook experience – you have to actually put all of your friends in circles that have been suggested to you, or you have to invent an entire inventorying system on your own, on the fly. Sometimes you drag one person into many circles, sometimes just one, but each time it feels more like work than like an innovative social experience. It can do everything Facebook can, and maybe even a bit better in some respects, but only if I sit through and recreate exactly what I have on Facebook already. It is completely derivative.

Maybe in 2-3 years I’ll look back and wonder how I was so blind to Google+’s beauty (even dumber… search engines ignore plus signs as a default, so “Google+” is difficult as it comes to the very technology made famous by its namesake). But more likely, I think Google+ will complete the holy trinity of hot, buzzy social products that eventually get dropped of Wave, Buzz, and Google+. Google really needs to add some new spark to Google+, or the early adopters may be the only adopters.

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Spotify… A liveblog/review of my first day with Spotify

I write a lot about music services on here, because music services are sort of in the startup world now, they are sort of copyright-relevant, and I listen to a lot of music. Spotify has been the hot new music service, out now for paying customers and with a wait if you want an invite to the free service. Spotify’s angle is that you can listen to anything you want at any time in a giant catalog of music, with some limitations if you are a freebie customer, and essentially no limitations if you are a paying customer at 5 bucks a month.

Eager to try out the service, I paid 5 bucks figuring it was worth a month. Here’s my experience:

1:00 pm – Ooooo Spotify! I want to try it, but I’m so impatient I might as well pay the $5 and try it RIGHT NOW.

1:05 pm – Signup was easy and I’m now listening to music while I work on some other things. Immediately I’m familiar with the interface:

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

On the right there is a little bar with my facebook friends who have spotify (only about 20 right now), and if I click I can see their shared iTunes playlists. Spotify automatically imports all of your iTunes music into the program – convenient. On the left is a couple shortcuts – obvious things like links to my own playlists and music, and then at the top a “What’s new” button. There seems to be three main modes of discovery built into this button – New stuff featured by spotify, “top lists” which is a list of the most popular stuff, and “feed” which pulls from recommendations made by your friends.

I click feeds, and find 10 messages from spotify and 1 from a friend, who recommends a song I don’t like. Ok so that feature isn’t really working yet, maybe the service is too new.

I click “top lists”. The top tracks are basically just the top radio songs, as are the top albums – a mixture of Adele, lady gaga, katy perry, and other things I wouldn’t listen to for free.

I click “What’s new”. I see LMFAO, Limp Bizkit (??), Fatboy Slim, and Foster the People. Not really interested in those first three, but Foster the People is playing at Outside Lands and I’m going to that, so I click Foster the People and see I can listen to their whole album! Now we are getting somewhere! I click on “Pumped up Kicks”, their most popular song…. nothing happens. I don’t see any reason why the song shouldn’t play, it’s clearly available, but it doesn’t play. Bummer. So I click on another song on the album, which also doesn’t play. This is getting frustrating. I click on another song, and it plays, so I listen to that for a bit and go back to some work.

2:30 pm – After doing some work, walking around to chat with some people about some work stuff, I realize my earphones haven’t been in for at least 40 minutes and I plug them back in. Nothing is playing. I flip over to Spotify and find that “Pumped up Kicks” is still waiting to start again… Hmm, I need a new route. I realize I’m seeing a TV on the Radio show in September, so I search and find that Spotify has that entire new album up! Great. I click on a song and let it shuffle, back to work.

2:35 pm – Music stops again, one song into the album. Seems the “pumped up kicks” problem isn’t isolated to Foster the People. I click around for another song that works, forced to skip two on the album. Back to work, I was actually getting something done.

2:50 pm – Music stops again, three songs later. WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH THIS THING. I’ve been wanting to listen to the most recent lykke li album a bit more but have neglected to downl….. acquire it through other channels so I type that in, find the new album, and click on the second song. Lykke li bursts, and I’m back to work.

3: 15 pm – Music stops again, a few songs later. Stuck on an indefinitely buffering Lykke Li song, once again. I decide to test some of the other discovery possibilities of the service – I open the “facebook friends” bar, and am faced with a tough decision…. who looks like they listen to music I might like? A few random facebook friends are immediately eliminated based on some mental calculations of how crappy I know their taste to be, and I settle on Smephanie Momlin (name changed for privacy sake). I click her, and it shows me two playlists she has made “1forthecar” and “2fortherun”. Smephanie is apparently from the literal camp of playlist naming. I recently read a pretty hilarious blog post on playlist names here, but I’ll save time and post the relevant portion here:

Some of the other people here, most of whom are still setting up for the party, look over at my iPod playlists which is so fucking embarrassing because the things you name your iPod playlists are very personal and aren’t meant to be displayed in front of a crowd of people you’ve never met. Like sometimes I DJ under the name Big League Jew, like that chewing gum, so that’s right on the TV and 5 fancy girls are looking at it. In my peripheral vision I can see that one of them looks at me and I think, “Stop looking at me swan!!”

If you are an active playlist maker who isn’t a literal playlist titleist (like “Workout 2,” “Dance Party 8”), look through your playlists right now. What would people think of you if they saw them, right? Would they think you haven’t gotten over any of your exes and you are annoying and sentimental? It’s hard to say exactly what they would think, but you still wouldn’t want to show them.

Note to self – remove embarrassing shared playlists before logging into Spotify. I’m neither in the car, nor am I running, so I click on another friend, who it turns out has no shared playlists. I click on another. No shared playlists. Apparently Smephanie is in the minority. I randomly decide to listen to The Beatles. The Beatles, I find, aren’t on Spotify. Okkkk what else do I want to hear but know I don’t have? How about Talking Heads, I just saw “Stop Making Sense” last weekend. Oh good, they have that, I click, and head back to work.

3:40 pm – Happily chugging along with Talking Heads, I decide I want to hear the live version of “This Must Be the Place”. I search Spotify and find they have it! Great, this service is coming ALIVE! Click… nothing. Music eternally buffering. My internet is pretty solid, this doesn’t make much sense. I close the application and reopen it. Still buffers eternally. Disgruntled, I queue it up on Youtube instead.

4:18 pm – After some work leads me away from the computer, I’m back, and I click over to Spotify. Decide to try some Radiohead, they have it, so I click and it works! Back to real work.

After my short afternoon with Spotify, I’ve got a few conclusions:

It’s awful for discovering new music. Pandora just owns it on that front. Seeing my friends’ playlists is great, but if Smephanie only has shared a handful, or if other anonymous friend hasn’t shared anything, it doesn’t help at all. The “what’s new” and “top lists” pages are populated purely with the crap that people listen to on the radio, which I can easily get for free on Youtube, and I don’t really need to “discover” that music because it a) sucks and b) is all over the radio. I need to know what I’m looking for when I want new music on Spotify, which isn’t necessarily terrible, it just doesn’t leverage my social graph in any discernable way, and it doesn’t suggest anything to me based on what it should know I like.

Tracks randomly won’t play. Listen, I know this service just launched. But I’m not a beta tester – I shelled out $5 for this thing. Some people are paying more for the super uber premium version, and I would be truly miffed if I paid for that price point and was given eternally not-streaming songs. It’s a buzz kill to be in the groove doing something else and have to switch back over because Spotify hit a “Pumped up Kicks” again.

It’s not better than downloading the whole album for free as a torrent. People who pay for music pay for music, and maybe for them this service makes sense. But people who don’t pay for music get nothing from Spotify that they aren’t getting for free at a torrent site – on both I need to know what I want, and search for it. As a torrent, I can have the whole thing in 3-5 minutes, on Spotify, I have to pay, they may not have it, and it may not stream if they do. The only chance the music industry has to recapture the people who don’t want to pay for music is to either ramp up enforcement (which they’ve tried, and doesn’t and will never work), or to offer them a value proposition that they can’t turn down – Like utilizing the social graph in a new and cool way (turntable.fm) or offering an interesting method of discovering new music (pandora). Spotify doesn’t do either of those things well. It’s just a legal version of Napster, which is cool, but Napster was cutting edge in 1999, and didn’t have the possibility of drawing on advanced algorithms or facebook friends to suggest new music. Spotify should utilize those things, but it doesn’t.

I’ll give Spotify until the end of the month to convince me, but right now that $5 is probably the last Lincoln they are getting from me (Lincoln is on the five right?). I give Spotify a 72/100, barely passing, and not worth the cost.

(Next Day Update: Spotify seems to have largely fixed the nonplaying issue I was experiencing, which at least makes the service useable. Based on the search terms that brought people to my blog, I definitely wasn’t the only one experiencing the problem, but it’s good that Spotify fixed it so quickly. My other criticisms stand, but this improves my score to 80/100, a B-.)

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“Video games can never be art” – Rebuttal number 343

Roger Ebert wrote an article last year with the above title, and just about everybody in the world has chimed in on the topic. It’s actually a topic that’s been beaten quite to death on the internetz in the time that has passed since that initial claim by Ebert, and I’ve read opinions on every end of the spectrum, from “never” (Ebert’s position) to “definitely”.

                                                                                            (“art”)

Debate on the topic is so tired to me that I’ve had this post saved as a draft since I started this blog. Being an avid fan of video games and coming from a liberal arts college, entering the fray of an un-winnable debate seemed like a natural move. But a post on video games as art was already feeling a year late, months ago. Why now then? My inspiration will be revealed shortly, after a very brief somewhat long just frickin stick with me okay? aside:

Art is an ideal. Nobody has the example form of “art” locked away somewhere, for us to look at and compare new creations to as a manner of deciding if they are up to snuff. Like any good liberal arts student, I’m well aware of the history of ideals in our society, and could bore plenty of people with musings about the development of ideals in society from Plato to Kant to Nietzsche. Woo hoo. The only thing that matters about ideals is that we never have a mutual, universal understanding of what they describe. Just like good in one culture is different from good in another, art in one culture is different from art in another. In an internet world where the majority of our personal exposure to culture is self-selected from an almost limitless number of sources, agreement on what is contained within a notion like “good” or “art” has fragmented even further – the websites I read tell me one thing, and the websites my roommate reads tell him another. Our inability to come to a consensus on video games as art is as unsurprising as our inability to come to a consensus on any other intangible concept, like justice or religion.

But I venture that art does have one quality which most would agree upon – art needs to be able to push boundaries. There’s an innate concept of progression in the endeavors we generally consider art, as opposed to the things we don’t, like, say, filing taxes. When people ascribe the qualities of art to typically non-art things, they are describing the sense they get when they feel a progression in the practice of that thing – when an accountant claims that there is indeed an art to filing taxes, she is describing the sense of progression that comes from doing an activity in repetition. While video games obviously have a similar learning/mastery feel, that isn’t the type of progression I feel all art shares.

This year’s E3, the perennial festival of game announcements for the coming year, was the inspiration for this post. I’m excited to play a bunch of different games, but here’s the meat of the list: Assassin’s Creed 3, Mass Effect 3, Halo 1 remake (but really, it’s the 6th Halo game – 1, 2, 3, ODST, Reach… and 1 again), Uncharted 3, Call of Duty number 70, Diablo 3… and Journey. You don’t have to know anything about video games to realize that only one of those titles has the potential to be a wholly unique experience (and thank god for Journey, or else this article would need a different conclusion). You can argue that the sequels are art in the manner that tax filing can be art, in progression through small improvements achieved through repetition. But Halo and Call of Duty are basically simple first person shooters, of which there have been literally thousands before. They will be quality entertainment, but it’s a stretch to say that they are pushing boundaries in an artistic sense.

Pushing boundaries, and thus art, requires that completely new takes on the medium show up. Van Gogh, Escher, Picasso were all great artists for their newness, as compared to pre-Renaissance greats. Those pre-Renaissance greats, the ones who painted still lifes and landscapes over and over, were artists indeed, but painting as an art form required the Van Goghs and the Eschers to lend the medium promise of originality in a sense that transcends perfection through repetition. Pre-Renaissance artists were definitely the seasoned tax specialists of my double-analogy. (Painting has always intrigued me as an art form historically, because being a living painter was a rather bleak experience in the pre-Renaissance period as compared to the fabulous lives lead by, say, Andy Warhol or Banksy, AFTER human culture agreed that painting was a true art.)

                                                    (Still life by Cezanne, a boundary pusher)

Video games are young, and my point in all this is that the medium hasn’t left the pre-Renaissance phase. I’m more excited about the games coming out of E3 than I have been in years, but Assassin’s Creed 3 is the third rendition of a decent still life. Halo is the 800th rendition of the still life called Doom. Developers are, largely, still painting still life. A large part is tied to expense: The profit motive that funds these games is, to really push this metaphor, like the patronage system that drove pre-Renaissance art. It still costs a LOT of money to make and market a big video game, so 90% of the stuff we hear about is driven by the aims of the companies bankrolling the ventures. Games are increasingly built to fit the agreements that make the developers money, by establishing a brand, and making the majority of the profits on the cheaper-to-develop sequels. This cycle works, and because games are such expensive investments, developers stick to it.

So that’s basically my take on the whole thing… Economics have driven games to the point of being somewhat repetitive and derivative, and while there are certainly unique, original entries that push boundaries (Limbo and Heavy Rain last year, Journey this year), they are few and far between in a sea of first person shooter rehashes, and they don’t make nearly as much money, so developers don’t clamor for them. There’s art out there, but until the cost of distribution, marketing and development come down dramatically, studios will still favor the still life to the Picasso.

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Is Facebook’s Project Spartan/Microsoft’s Kinect SDK a sign that the application market wars have begun?

Mobile devices are the future. Whether it be iPads, smart phones, netbooks, or whatever device we will use to access “the cloud” in five years, and we probably won’t care as much about desktops or even laptops as we do now. That’s old news, but it’s yet to be seen what that news means for the traditional big hitters in the tech world, and how those big hitters will keep up with a rather dramatic market shift. Apple was the first to the market by a year or two, really, and they paved the way for the app market structure: an iphone on 3G showed the world how easily we could do without our desktops, and pointed software towards the grave. Soon the days of software developed by teams of engineers over multi-year development cycles, “mastered” and sent to a manufacturer to mass produce to send to physical stores around the world would be gone… Our mobile devices, of which it seems we can’t get enough right now, run on applications – they aren’t “finished”, but constantly and quickly updated. An excellent piece by Ben Horrowitz on the Economist website pointed out that advances in programming languages greatly reduce the number of hours it takes to create a strong piece of software, and along with a whole host of other reasons (faster wireless, cheaper phones/tablets, end of closed development platforms), applications are how 90% of consumers will get 90% of their content in the future.

This year will go down in history as the year where the big tech companies realized that the future was in application markets, and where every single one of them entered the fray. News came yesterday of “Project Spartan” (lame codename), a Facebook HTML5-based application market, designed to run on any web-capable device (aka the iphone). This joins Amazon’s app market, already running on a bunch of devices, and obviously Google’s Android market and the original “app market” by Apple. As we learned in the original computer boom, only one (or two) of these operating syst… I mean app markets… can survive. Every technological platform reduces to 1-2 main competitors eventually; just look at computers [mac/pc], operating systems [windows/OS], smartphones [iphone/android… sorry blackberry!], video game consoles [xbox/playstation]… It’ll happen in app markets too. Does Facebook’s inherent social advantage mean it can take on Apple and Google with their giant headstarts and hardware presence? Can Amazon do anything to parlay their advantage in moving physical goods and their relationships with distributors into something app users care about? Can Barnes and Noble turn a pretty solid device (the nook) into something that won’t be a historical relic in 2 years? Is Microsoft gonna uncharacteristically sit this round out, or is the Kinect their app market?

begun the app market wars has.

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How social games are like massages, and why anybody might care

The massage therapy market seems to be doing just fine in the recession, at least if you believe a google search on the topic. I’ve previously posted about how well the social games market has done growing up during the recession, and in some ways I think social games are a lot like massages. Think about it:

You can’t satisfy demand for them in just one purchase: There’s a reason you don’t see advertisements for 10 hour massages, and you can’t beat a social game in one sitting like you could a console game. The good is structured in a way that demand is fulfilled by experiencing the good in small intervals, with the goal of addicting you so that you come back later. Compare to something like chocolate: If I was offered 10 pieces of chocolate for $5, or 20 pieces for $5, I’d be economically irrational not to take the latter offer. But with massages, I’d take a 2 hour massage for $20, but probably wouldn’t want a 10 hour massage even for the same price. Similarly, I might want to play Mafia Wars for 20 minutes, but probably wouldn’t want to for an hour straight even if the value proposition of a normal good would suggest that to be irrational. (Turns out I won’t play Mafia Wars even with my developer friend begging me to play it, because the game isn’t much fun, but you get my point.)

Both goods defy the typical definition of a luxury good, apparently: Luxury goods are typically understood as goods with a high elasticity of demand; the more money people have, the more they want to buy, and vice versa. Apparently social games and massages aren’t really luxury goods, even though most of us would think of them as superfluous to our existence (rightly so, I’d say). My cursory google research has me believing that the massage/spa industry is doing quite well even during the country’s economic turmoil, and there were no such things as social games 2 years ago.

Maybe both goods are… replacement goods?: If they aren’t luxury goods, though, this raises an interesting question for social games: will the market continue to grow as the economy recovers? Social games might actually be a replacement good – I can’t afford a console game, so I spent 20 bucks on Farmville Frontierville Cityville. Hear that sound? That’s the sound of this post getting to it’s point – Maybe we should be realistic about the potential market for social games as the general economy recovers. Obviously it will grow, as it’s a young industry, and there’s only been one killer app on iphone/ipad (Angry Birds, which isn’t really even social). And the markets are somewhat different: Farmville was built on middle age women. But if social games are a replacement good rather than a luxury good, we might consider the possibility that at least some gamers will go back to console games, and at least some middle age women will go back to whatever middle age women used to entertain themselves with.

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Google Music beta is released, Apple the big winner, Grooveshark turns mega loser

Google Music Beta launched today, invite only of course. Initial reviews? I’ve only found one, and it’s Venturebeat who describes it as miserable.

The timing is certainly odd. Google’s original vision was to license with the music labels, and potentially provide access to a giant database of music for a monthly fee, a move which would have dramatically altered the landscape of music consumption in America. Apparently Google misunderstood a basic fact of life: the music industry is completely stubborn, and still thinks this whole internet phase is going to pass. Many labels refused to budge from their “no thank you we will watch our business collapse in peace” position, so Google decided to Beta the product now.

Here’s three little notes on why this was dumb:

1. Google just kicked an essentially identical service off the Android market. But Google Music Beta is legal…

Grooveshark was a streaming service that did exactly what Google Music Beta lets you do. It actually did less! But, Google took Grooveshark down from the Android market, presumably for being shady regarding copyright law. Then Google released Google Music Beta, which does the same thing, but Google insists now that it’s legal! Well, then what was wrong with Grooveshark? Google’s product is MUCH more questionable from a copyright standpoint. On Google Music Beta, you can cache music you’ve uploaded and streamed, which is a much more contentious copyright issue because the device is physically making a new copy. So, totally anti-competitive behavior and extreme hypocrisy. I never intended my blog to hate on Google every other post, but damn, this makes Google look terrible in my opinion. 1994 Microsoft-level anti-trust.

2. Google just lost all their leverage with the labels.

Now, I know Google launched this thing today. It’s a BIT early to write it off entirely. But, on the other hand, Google has blown numerous product launches over the last couple years, and all of them were panned in their Beta stages (Remember Google Wave? How about the Chrome notebook?). Even if Google Music Beta is the BEST cloud storage option in the game, it’s competing with Amazon for the exact same space, a space that consumers haven’t been quick to jump into anyway. Dropbox has been capable of the same cloud storage since the service went live, and Rhapsody has actually been in the space for over a year and only has 750,000 subscribers. Rhapsody is “on the cusp of breaking a profit”, which means it probably never will with the entry of 2 tech giants into the space. So the only successful entrant in the space thus far hasn’t made a profit, and Google will split the remaining market with Amazon, who has a similar service. This will not pressure the labels to jump into the cloud game any quicker. [May 11 edit: Apparently I’m right that the music labels want to go with Apple, anyway.]

3. Apple can do whatever the hell they want now.

Google basically took the “well we can always go to google” negotiation point away from the music labels. Apple can do whatever the hell they want now – if they want to keep working on the labels to license, no problem, they are the only cloud service at the table now, and they are the company that the music industry has begrudgingly accepted thanks to iTunes sales. They can basically hold out forever now: with Google and Amazon competing with the same service, Apple knows they can wait to release something amazing. If it isn’t until next year, that’s fine, because if they can license it will be a far superior service. If Apple wants to hurry and squash that first-mover advantage, they can release their cloud service in a week or two (probably going to be identical to Google’s anyway, if they don’t make a licensing deal). Or, they can wait and see how Google’s product does, and simply make the additions critics want without going through the potentially brand damaging process of having a public beta panned by the media.

I’m gonna stop writing about Google because I do like some things they do (trying to buy up software patents to end trolling, providing the best email service on the internet for free, providing the competitor to iOS). But yeah, didn’t like this very much.

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